Summary of changes and trends

• In Scotland, coastline changes were mainly accretional during the early and mid-nineteenth century. In most places accretion rates fell and erosional conditions ensued around the turn of the century but there was a general recovery to slight accretion during the period 1920 to 1960.
• Between 1969 and 1981, approximately 40% of sandy beaches over 100m in length in Scotland were eroding, 22% were stable and 11% were advancing. 18% showed evidence of both advance and retreat and the final 9% were protected or backed by some other stable feature such as rocks.
• The northern coastline of Northern Ireland is principally hard rock, so coastal erosion is minor and localized. The coast to the west of the Bann River is an area of deposition. East coast beaches are generally of late-Holocene age and are not being renewed at a constant rate to match current sea-level rise, with some consequent beach loss.
• In England, the largest erosion rates (i.e. greater than 1m/yr) are along the east coast, with nearly 20% of the locations in East England categorised thus. Some 13 of the 18 locations in North East England, where erosion exceed 1m/yr, fall along the South Yorkshire coast. By comparison, less than 5% of locations in all other regions have such high rates, this is particularly noticeable in South West England and Wales.
• In East Anglia, mean annual shoreline retreat/advance rates ranged from between 72.9m/yr retreat to 64.1m/yr advance since 1990. Mean annual volumetric changes rates of change ranged from a loss of 79,973.3 to an accretion of 65,048.0 cubic m/yr.
• On the south coast, the beach volume at Hurst Spit (Hampshire) fell from about 420, 000 cubic m in 1997 to about 350, 000 cubic m in 2001.
• The Mersey estuary had a net loss of volume of about 8% between 1906 and 1977, with a small increase of 10 million cubic m thereafter.

Major sources of data and information for this chapter are the Futurecoast report and the Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project.

The Futurecoast study was commissioned by Defra and carried out by a team led by Halcrow Group Ltd. The study provides predictions of coastal evolutionary tendencies over the next century, based on the use of data sets, information and experience of coastal systems. The output from the study is available on an interactive CD (Defra, 2002) and includes reports, guidance, data and mapping at various scales.

The Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project is managed by the Office of Science and Technology (OST) (http://www.foresight.gov.uk/fcd.html). Its aim is to produce a challenging and long-term vision for the future of flood and coastal defence that takes account of the many uncertainties, is robust, and can be used as a basis to inform policy and its delivery. The project is structured in three phases: Phase 1 covers “Drivers, scenarios and work plan”, Phase 2 covers “Impacts” and Phase 3 covers “Responses”.

The Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project (OST, 2003) identified the role of coastal morphology as a main ‘driver’ in changing the risk of coastal flooding around the UK coast. Changes to the seabed, shoreline and adjacent land, coastal inlets and estuaries involve the erosion of material from the seabed and the shore, the movement of this material and its subsequent accretion (see the chapter on “Sediment concentration and transport”). Impacts can occur directly, because erosion at the shoreline leads to the loss of land and assets or to the undermining of existing defence structures; or indirectly, because the loss in level increases the exposure of the shoreline to wave attack and hence potentially increase the rate of erosion. Any changes to the bathymetry have effects on the propagation of tides, surges and waves, which may then increase erosion effects.

Coastal and offshore ecosystems are affected by changes to the coast and seabed. For example, any loss of intertidal zones, especially in estuaries, or any change in seabed sediment type will result in a loss of biodiversity (see the chapter on “Sediment concentration and transport”).

The offshore coastal environment is an important source of sand and gravel for aggregates, beach nourishment (replacement of eroded sand and gravel) and other coastal protection schemes, land reclamation and contract fill (the use of material to fill holes and cavities in construction) (OST, 2003).

The UK coastline is an extremely dynamic environment that has altered significantly in the last 2,000 years and continues to be reshaped as a result of natural processes as well as by human intervention. As a result, the coastal zone of England and Wales is very diverse and includes coastal grasslands, cliffs, sandy or rocky beaches, dunes, salt marsh, mudflats and sand flats. In many cases present changes are a legacy of post-glacial Holocene influences.

Changes to the coast include changes in the shoreline position, due to eroding features such as cliffs and headlands or accreting features such as salt marsh or spits, and changes in beach profile, due to retreat, progress ('prograding' i.e. advancing seaward) or steepening. The pattern of change in beaches is such that in winter, when wave activity is normally at its greatest, the mean beach face level is drawn down and sediment is thought to move offshore into beach foot and offshore sandbars. In summer, some of the offshore material migrates shorewards again to build the beach to its greatest height of the annual cycle. Within this pattern the beach may rise or fall by more than a metre at any single location (McManus, 2003).

Changes to the seabed involve changes in bathymetry (the creation, movement and removal of banks and channels) and/or sediment type, both due to net deposition and erosion events.

The main processes causing the changes are variations along the coast in the rate of beach sediment transport (longshore drift), variations in time of the supply of river sediments to the beach, erosion of the nearshore seabed, landwards migration of the beach profile in response to sea level rise, loss of sand from the beaches to the nearshore seabed, wave attack on the cliff or back shore at and above the high water mark, cliff weathering and erosion (e.g. by winds, rainfall, freeze-thaw etc.) and land-sliding of cliff faces caused by saturation by groundwater flows (OST, 2003).

Coastal cells define units of shoreline within which natural longshore transport of sediment occurs. Since most cases of severe coastal erosion occur when longshore transport is interrupted, identifying coastal cells is the initial step in seeking to protect a shoreline against erosion or flooding prior. This procedure is now well-established for England and Wales (funded by Defra) but has only been applied to Scotland and Northern Ireland in a piecemeal manner (funded by local authorities) (OST, 2004a; OST, 2004b).

Descriptions of the monitoring networks that regularly measure changes to the coast or to the sea bed are given in the chapter on Monitoring Networks, together with details of how to access archived and near real-time data.

Click here for a list of links to monitoring networks and data sets.

In addition, most ports carry out regular surveys of their approaches and harbour areas (see Figure 1 as an example).

Figures 2 and 3 show the typical profiles obtained during coastal monitoring and figures 4 to 9 show how the data can be analysed to estimate shoreline and beach changes along a section.

Most of the coasts of the Highlands and Islands and many further south are rocky and change slowly. Therefore the potential for significant erosion mainly exists in beach and salt marsh environments or other areas where soft sediment such as till overlies the bedrock.

McManus (2003) details rates of change (m per year) of High Water Mark for southwest (1806 – 1974), eastern (1855 – 1959), western and northern Isles (1875 – 1998) and rates of seaward advance (m per year) of Low Water Mark on eastern beaches (1812 – 1972); and also changes to the beach width in the Moray Firth (1870 – 1970). In all areas the rates of coastal change have varied greatly through time. Changes were mainly accretional during the early and mid-nineteenth century. In most places accretion rates fell and erosional conditions ensued around the turn of the century but there was a general recovery to slight accretion during the period 1920 to 1960 (McManus, 2003).

A study (Scottish Coastal Forum, 2002) between 1969 and 1981 of all 647 sandy beaches over 100m in length in Scotland showed that approximately 40% were eroding, 22% were stable and 11% were advancing. 18% showed evidence of both advance and retreat and the final 9% were protected or backed by some other stable feature such as rocks.

Erosion was most prevalent in Dumfries and Galloway, Shetland and the Western Isles and least marked in Lothian & Borders, Orkney and Strathclyde (Highlands and Islands). Prograding beaches were most common in Strathclyde, and Tayside & Fife and least common in Dumfries & Galloway, Grampian and Shetland. It is generally believed that the relative prevalence of coastal erosion in Scotland is due primarily to decreasing sand supply to beaches from the seabed and other sources.

A more recent report (OST, 2004a) states that the rocky and high indented coastline of mainland Scotland (especially on the west coast) and fragmented outlines of the Western Isles and Orkney and Shetland makes it difficult to define coastal cells using the same criteria adopted for England and Wales (Ramsay and Brampton, 2000). The most recent attempt (J Hansom, personal communication, quoted in OST, 2004a) identifies 7 cells along the mainland reserving a further 4 coastal cells for the Outer Hebrides and Orkney and Shetland. For the rocky coasts of the north and west where sediment is sparse and beaches often confined to deeply indented bays, individual cells are small and numerous. For such lengths of shoreline many small bays (or pocket beaches) are grouped together to form a much larger “sub-cell” for management purposes – the hydraulic environment and general orientation of the coastline determining the grouping process.

According to OST (2004a), Quenlenuec et al. (1998) characterized some of these coastal cells as follows:

• Berwick to Aberdeen (cells 1, 2a, 2b and 2c): predominantly eroding but stable where there are rocky coasts or coastal defences
• Aberdeen to Inverness (cells 2d, 2a, 3b, 3c and 3d): mainly eroding but with important river coupling
• Inverness to Mallaig (cells 3, 4 5a): stable with eroding pocket beaches
• Mallaig to Carlisle (cells 6 and 7): predominantly eroding but stable where there are rocky coasts or coastal defences
• Mull/Islay/Jura/Skye (cells 5b and 5c) predominantly stable but with soft coasts eroding (pocket beaches)
• Orkney (cell 10): stable with eroding pocket beaches.

According to OST (2004a), as in England and Wales, most of the sediment reworked along the Scottish coast is fine grained and of marine origin, this includes the sand banks within the outer estuaries of the Solway, Clyde, Forth and Tay. Two exceptions are the inner Tay estuary (dominated by river-derived sands and gravels) and Spey Bay plus the shoreline to the west which is constantly replenished by river gravels from the Spey (Gemmell, Hansom and Hoey, 2001). Any reduction in sediment fluxes on the lower Spey (due to changes in runoff or land management) would starve Spey Bay and cause immediate erosion along cell 3b. This, however, is a special case and more generally there is minimal coupling between fluvial and coastal morphology around the Scottish coast.

Work undertaken as part of the Futurecoast study analysed historic Ordnance Survey maps (1:10,000 scale) extending back to the mid-19th Century. Part of this analysis included establishing retreat rates at over 1,000 locations around England and Wales. These measurements were obtained at intervals of between one and five kilometres, depending upon changes in geomorphological features and defence positions (OST, 2004c).

From OST (2004c), a review of this analysis is presented in Table 1 and Figure 10; the rates presented relate to the most landward feature in each case (either top of cliff or back of beach). These rates include the influence of coastal defences; where defences exist only post-defence rates have been quoted. Defended locations represent just over 450 of the locations, of which approximately half fall within the band of “little change”, therefore the other half, where there is some form of defence management, have post-defence rates of change in excess of 0.1m/yr (some erosion, some accretion).

Click here to see Table_1. Table 1: Present average rates of shoreline movement (values are number of individual locations where shoreline position has been measured). From OST (2004c). Courtesy of OST.

According to OST (2004c), it can be seen from Table 1 and Figure 10 that the largest erosion rates (i.e. greater than 1m/yr) are seen along the east coast, with nearly 20% of the locations in East England categorised thus. It should be noted that some 13 of the 18 locations in North East England, where erosion exceed 1m/yr, fall along the South Yorkshire coast. By comparison, less than 5% of locations in all other regions have such high rates. This is particularly noticeable in South West England and Wales, but reflects the nature of the broad geological differences between regions.

It should also be noted that coastal change, especially erosion, is not necessarily a linear or regular process and whilst these are average rates over a long period of time, they may often result from periodic events rather than be a continuous process. For example, in parts of North Norfolk a section of cliff may suffer a 40 metre failure in a single event, but only once every 40 years (OST, 2004c).

Further details on the current and potential rates of change for different coastal behavioural systems around England and Wales are presented in Table 2 from the Foresight Project (OST, 2004c), which better illustrate some of the variation within the regions.

Click here to see Table_2. Table 2: Present average rates of shoreline movement (values are number of individual locations where shoreline position has been measured). From OST (2004c). Courtesy of OST.

Click here to see an animation of changes in salt marsh in Southampton Water from 1946 to 1996. Link to animation of salt marsh changes in Southampton Water. Courtesy of ABP Southampton.

East coast beaches with backshore sediment deposits are generally of late-Holocene age (about 3,000 BP) and are not being renewed at a constant rate to match current sea-level rise (Julian Orford, personal communication, January 2004, based on his contribution to SNIFFER, 2002).

The northern coastline is principally hard rock, predominantly basalt, so coastal erosion is minor and localized, e.g. between Larne and Cushendall (OST, 2004b). However, the coast to the west of the Bann River tends to be an area of deposition. East coast beaches with backshore sediment deposits are generally of late-Holocene age (about 3,000 BP) and are not being renewed at a constant rate to match current sea-level rise (Orford and McFadden, 2002), with for example consequent beach loss at Newcastle (OST, 2004b).

The UK is located on the northwest corner of the European Continental Shelf where water depths are generally less than 300m. The main features of the bathymetry are ‘open seas’ exposed directly to the Atlantic e.g. the south-western Approaches, the southern Celtic Sea and the Hebridean Sea; and ‘closed seas’ bounded by landmasses e.g. the northern Celtic Sea, eastern part of the English Channel and southern part of the North Sea. Nearshore water depths are generally less than 50m and the deepest areas of nearshore water (>100m) are found to the northwest and northeast of Scotland, off the northeast of Northern Ireland, offshore of the east coast to the north of Flamborough Head, on the south coast to the west of Start Point, and also on the west coast off the western most tip of Wales. Many of the present day changes are best summarised in the associated animated web displays.

Click here to see a map of the broad-scale bathymetry of UK waters, based on the BGS/HO product DigBath250. Refer also to http://www.bgs.ac.uk/products/digbath250.

In the following regional sections, descriptions of the early bathymetric history for English and Welsh waters is taken from the Futurecoast report (Defra, 2002).

In Scottish waters, during the peak of the Ice Age around 18,000 years ago, sea level fell between 100m and 120m relative to the level of the land surface. Climatic amelioration started about 13,500 years ago and water levels rose rapidly. A further, short-lived re-advance of the ice occurred during the Loch Lomond stadial between 10,000 and 9,000 years ago. The final removal of the ice permitted the land masses to rise again and the highest post-glacial relative sea levels were reached during the period 5,000 to 6,500 years ago in different parts of Scotland as the different areas responded almost independently to isostatic readjustment (McManus, 2003).

In English waters, around 18,000 years ago the Late Pleistocene ice sheet had reached its maximum extent and covered the area of the modern eastern England coastline, as far south as north Norfolk. Sea level was approximately 130m below present at this time. A narrow sea, many kilometres offshore, extended northwards from approximately the latitude of St Abb’s Head to join the Norwegian Sea to the north. As the ice retreated, global sea levels began to rise rapidly. The unloading of the crust of northern Britain resulted in isostatic uplift which served to counteract the sea level rise and slowed the rate of flooding of former glaciated areas so that by 12,000 years ago the position of the coastline in this area had changed very little.

By 10,000 BP the area now occupied by the northern North Sea had begun to flood and the southern coastline had reached approximately the latitude of the Tees Estuary. At this time, the area of North Sea to the south was a low-lying land area traversed by river valleys. As sea level continued to rise the North Sea expanded southwards and by 9,000 BP the Outer Silver Pit had flooded and the Dogger Bank was a peninsula. By this time the Southern Bight area had begun to flood from the south through the Dover Straits. Marine influence reached the modern River Tyne valley between 8,900 and 8,400 BP. Sea level continued to rise rapidly so that by 8,000 BP extensive low lying areas around the growing North Sea had flooded to form broad intertidal areas. Connection between the northern North Sea and the Southern Bight was finally made around 7,500 to 7,000 BP with the final breaching of the land bridge that existed to the north east of Norfolk.

Around 7,800 BP the first marine influence reached the area of the Wash. Connection between the northern North Sea and the Southern Bight was finally made around 7,500 to 7,000 BP with the final breaching of the land bridge that existed to the north east of Norfolk when sea level was around 10 to 15m below its present level. At around 7,000 BP the Dogger Bank was still an island but by 6,000 BP it had become inundated and the coastline of the North Sea was similar to that of the present day. At around 7,000 BP isostatic rebound resulted in a sea level high during the mid Holocene which was up to 2.5 metres above present. The southern Northumberland coast and areas further to the south do not exhibit this rise so that there is a marked spatial difference in relative sea level history along this stretch of coastline. By 6,000 BP, the coastline of the North Sea was similar to that of the present day.

3.1.2 Present day

Water depths are substantially shallower in the southern North Sea (<50m) than to the north of Flamborough Head (up to 200m).

The EA’s Anglian Region has been monitoring the coast and estuaries between the Humber and the Thames since summer 1991. (For further details, see the chapter on Monitoring Networks.) An analysis of data for the period summer 1991 to winter 2000 has been carried out to determine the long-term trends for the coastline over that period (Julie Richards, personal communication). As an indication of the kind of information on shoreline movement and change that can be output from coastal monitoring work, we quote some values from the report. However all carry a strong ‘health warning’!

Mean annual shoreline retreat/advance rates (the average distance that MSL has moved either landward (retreat) or seaward (advance) from summer to summer) ranged from between 72.9m/yr retreat to 64.1m/yr advance.

Maximum shoreline retreat distances during a six-month period at each beach profile (the maximum distance MSL has moved landward since summer 1991) had a greatest value of 1246.9m and a least value of 0.9m.

Mean annual volumetric changes rates of change at each beach profile (calculated using the volume of the compartment 500m to either side of each of the beach profiles from summer to summer) ranged from a loss of 79,973.3 to an accretion of 65,048.0 cubic m/yr.

Maximum beach volumetric loss (where the compartment to 500m either side of each beach profile has been reduced the most in volume in a six-month period) ranged from 1580.0 to 516,440.0 cubic m.

Click here to see an animation of bathymetric changes in the Humber from 1851 to 1999.
Link to animation of bathymetric changes in the Humber. Courtesy of ABP Hull.

Click here to see bathymetric data for the Humber and Blackwater estuaries.
Link to bathymetric data for the Humber and Blackwater estuaries (STEMgis).

During the last two million years, glacio-eustatic sea level changes have repeatedly exposed the bed of the English Channel to sub-aerial conditions. These sea level low stands correspond to periods of glaciation in the northern hemisphere, the last such episode reaching a maximum around 18,000 BP. Although still controversial, the modern consensus of opinion is that the southern limit of glacial ice did not reach the English Channel, reaching only as far south as the English Midlands and South Wales.

Geological evidence suggests there was no marine connection between the North Sea and the English Channel prior to the middle Pleistocene (about 500,000 BP) and that a chalk ridge extended unbroken at this time from the North Downs across to the French coast. About 500,000 BP, a lake formed in the southern North Sea, ponded to the north by the ice sheet, and to the south by the chalk ridge across the Dover Strait. At some stage the lake overflowed and broke through the ridge to initiate a connection between the North Sea and English Channel; and the catastrophic flood, which accompanied this event, in filled and overdeepend the existing river system in the English Channel to form the present complex channel network. During subsequent periods of lower sea level, water from the Thames and Rhine catchments flowed though and widened the breach to form the Lobourg Channel. During periods of normal sea level the channels were drowned and partially in filled, and marine erosion attacked the marginal cliffs to widen the Dover Strait.

During the preceding interglacial period between 120,000 and 130,000 BP, sea level was similar to that of the present day and the English Channel was a shelf sea separating Britain from the European landmass. At this time beaches and cliffs existed along the south coast, remnants of which are preserved at a variety of locations. Raised interglacial beaches are found at a number of sites, but most in this area are now believed to date from an even earlier interglacial period. The raised beach at Portland Bill, which lies between 6.95 and 10.75m OD, dates from the last interglacial. Offshore there is a palaeo cliff line that may date from this period and which could be used as a possible indicator of post-glacial coastal recession. The chalk ridge between Purbeck and the Isle of Wight may have been initially breached during this interglacial period when the gap was only approximately 11km wide compared to 25km today.

The flooding of the English Channel commenced from the west as sea levels began to rise. By about 10,000 BP the eastern end of the marine embayment had reached as far east as Beachy Head and Britain was still connected by dry land to the continent across the eastern English Channel and Dover Straits region. By 8,000 BP the entire English Channel and Dover Straits area was inundated but there was still a shallow land connection separating this water body from the North Sea. This connection was breached around 7,500 years ago linking the English Channel to the North Sea. Tidal models have shown that the opening of the Dover Straits initiated the strong eastward transport in the eastern Channel.

The transgression of the English Channel region probably led to the destruction or reworking of many of the fluvial terrace deposits to form either beaches which rolled onshore and/or marine bed forms in the shallow sea. As the transgression continued these newly formed shelf sediments may have moved extensively before sea levels reached approximately their present level about 5,000 BP. Since that time there may have been small oscillations in sea level. Additional sediment may then have been made available through coastal erosion.

During the glacial period, sea level in the Bristol Channel area was lower than at present. With the slow post-glacial rise in sea level, a marine transgression crossed the area (commencing about 8,000 BP). When sea level reached its modern level, about 5,000 years ago, the tidal regime and thus the modern sediment transport regime became established.

The western half of the English Channel is characterised by a fairly deep (100m) central channel which runs (and shallows) in an west-east direction. The Celtic Sea is characterised by a deep (100-200m) channel running north-south.

Long-term, high quality beach monitoring programmes are in place at Bournemouth (since 1974), Herne Bay (since 1974) and Christchurch Bay (since 1987). Beach volume at Hurst Spit (Hampshire) fell from about 420 000 cubic m in 1997 to about 350 000 cubic m in 2001 (Bradbury et al., 2002).

Click here to see an animation of bathymetric changes in Southampton Water from 1783 to 1996. Link to animation of bathymetric changes in Southampton Water. Courtesy of ABP Southampton.

Click here to see bathymetric data for Southampton Water and the Tamar estuary.
Link to bathymetric data for Southampton Water and the Tamar estuaries (STEMgis).

The major estuaries of Cardigan Bay and Caernarfon Bay (of the Teify, Dyfi, Mawddach and Dwyryd rivers) are largely in filled with sediment and the latter three have major spits and dune complexes developed across their mouths. The spits began to form when sea level approached its modern level about 3,000 to 5,000 BP. Initially, silty sand accumulated landward of the barriers and kept pace with the rise in sea level, but eventually sedimentation overtook sea level rise and silty clay in filled much of the estuaries. For example, when Harlech Castle was built 800 years ago it was fronted by water and had an easy connection to the sea, but now it is surrounded by the extensive low-lying land of Morfa Harlech. Sediment is still accreting also in the Teify and Dyfi estuaries.

Prior to the early Holocene marine transgression, the eastern Irish Sea was covered by sediments laid down by the retreating glaciers and their associated fluvial systems, and late glacial muds. With the post-glacial rise in sea level these sediments were reworked and the additional sediment may have been brought into the area from the western Irish Sea. Sea level attained a level close to its present position about 5,000 BP, and the modern hydrodynamic regime has been operating since this time.

A century of bathymetric surveys in the Mersey estuary indicates a net loss of estuarine volume of about 10% over 70 years (Thomas et al., 2002). Detailed analyses of the bathymetric surveys in 1906, 1936, 1956, 1977 and 1997 by Lane (2003) indicated that most significant changes occur in the upper estuary and in the inter-tidal region within the inner estuary basin. The overall pattern is for the estuary volume to decrease by about 60 million cubic metres or 8% between 1906 and 1977; after this period, there is a small increase of 10 million cubic metres.

Click here to see bathymetric data for the Mersey and Ribble estuaries.
Link to bathymetric data for the Mersey and Ribble estuaries (STEMgis).

References

Bradbury, A.P. (2000). Strategic monitoring of the coastal zone – towards a regional approach. Report to the Coastal Groups of the MAFF Southeast region.

Bradbury, A.P., S. McFarland, J. Horne and C. Eastwick (2002). Development of a strategic coastal monitoring programme for southeast England. Defra Conference of River and Coastal Engineers.

Buckley, S. and Mills, J., 2000. GPS and the wheel – how integrating the world’s greatest invention is helping to monitor coastal erosion. Surveying World, 9(1): 41.

Defra (2002). Futurecoast study. CD available from Defra, Ergon House, 17 Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR.

Lane, A. (2004). Bathymetric evolution of the Mersey Estuary, UK, 1906-1997: causes and effects. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, in Press.

McManus, J. (2003). Trends of change in coastal landforms and processes. DRAFT report to Scottish Natural Heritage.

Orford, J. and S. McFadden (2002). Coastal and Flood Defence, in Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Development Strategy, Scottish and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER) 11/13 Cumberland Street, Edinburgh EH3 6RT.

OST (2003). Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project - Phase 1 Technical Report - Drivers, scenarios and work plan (Working Paper). Available at http://www.foresight.gov.uk/fcd.html

OST (2004a). Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project - Phase 2 Appendix H - Future risks of flooding and coastal defence in Scotland. Prepared by Alan Werritty and John Chatterton.

OST (2004b). Aspects of the Foresight project specific to Northern Ireland.. Prepared by Stuart Suter and John Chatterton. Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project - Phase 2 Overview Report, Chapter 2, Appendix I.

OST (2004c). Assessment of Future Coastal Erosion Risk. Prepared by K. Burgess, H. Jay, C. Green, R. Nicholls and E. Penning-Rowsell. Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project - Phase 2 Overview Report, Chapter 2, Appendix K.

Quenlenuec, R. E. with collaboration with C. O. R. Uhel and W. Devos W (1998). CORINE: Coastal Erosion, European Commission, Brussels.

Scottish Coastal Forum (2002). A strategy for Scotland’s coasts and inshore waters. Prepared by George Lee, Scottish Natural Heritage. Available at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/environment/coastalforum/defence.pdf

Scottish and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER) (2000). Implications of Climate Change for Northern Ireland: Informing Strategy Development. SNIFFER, 11/13 Cumberland Street, Edinburgh EH3 6RT.

Thomas, C.G., J.R. Spearman and M.J. Turnball (2002). Historical morphological change in the Mersey Estuary. Continental Shelf Research, 22 (1-13): 1775-1794.